Kevin McCarthy’s beaming expression as he departed the Capitol on Monday with the phrase “a good day tomorrow” may have been an indication that he believes he is the “only Kevin” running for House speaker.

However, there are over a dozen Republicans who claim to be voting against him, voicing their worries, or still debating whether to back him.

In a House with a slim Republican majority, McCarthy can only afford to lose four votes if he wants to keep the speaker’s gavel, regardless of the outcome of this week’s vote.

What transpires if McCarthy is unable to secure the necessary votes for speaker? Here is how voting takes place.

McCarthy would be the only speaker candidate to fall short in a century if he is not elected on the first ballot. It would be the first time since the Civil War that something similar occurred in Congress if voting involved many ballots, voting rounds, and took days to complete.

Representative Kevin McCarthy’s chances of becoming House speaker remained in doubt 24 hours before Republicans formally take control of the chamber https://t.co/jDFRs1ZGTV

— Bloomberg (@business) January 2, 2023

Additionally, McCarthy’s backers, including Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, haven’t ruled out mobilising some Democrats and moderate Republicans to give McCarthy the 218 votes he needs.

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Republicans in the House who could obstruct McCarthy
The five “never Kevins” who have publicly declared they would not vote for him and the nine conservative members withholding support as they push for changes to House rules are the two primary groups in the Republican House caucus that could get in the way of his nomination on Tuesday.

House Republicans who might block McCarthy
The five “never Kevins,” who have declared publicly that they will not vote for him, and the nine conservative members, who are withholding support while attempting to change House rules, are the two primary groups in the Republican House caucus that could obstruct him on Tuesday.

Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Paul Gosar of Arizona, Chip Roy of Texas, Dan Bishop of North Carolina, Andy Harris of Maryland, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and three representatives-elect: Eli Crane of Arizona, Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, and Andy Ogles of Tennessee—are among the nine conservative lawmakers urging concessions.

These nine congressmen stated in a letter sent late Sunday night that McCarthy had made some but not enough compromises.

For instance, they favour removing a speaker being done by one person rather than five. Additionally, they oppose spending money or running campaigns against conservatives in open primaries by the House leadership.

Perry stated in a statement on Monday that “nothing changes when nothing changes, and that must start from the top.” Time to change or get out of the way, as the saying goes.

The conservative organisation Club for Growth urged its members to vote against a speaker candidate who doesn’t adhere to its conditions, continuing the pressure campaign against McCarthy on Tuesday night.

To “reveal the career politicians that only serve their own interests and to profit themselves, not public service in the best interests of the American People,” one demand calls for a vote on term limits that include three terms in the House and two terms in the Senate.

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