NFO alert: Bandhan Nifty Alpha 50 Index Fund

The New Fund Offer will be available on Wednesday, October 25, 2023, and will close on Monday, November 6, 2023. 

Vishal Kapoor, CEO of Bandhan AMC, highlighted the important reasons to pursue the Nifty Alpha 50 Index approach, saying, “Traditional passive funds are designed to mimic their benchmark and thus offer broad market-based returns.” Bandhan Nifty Alpha 50 Index Fund seeks to outperform the market by picking stocks with certain characteristics that yield potentially greater risk-adjusted returns than the market. According to NSE data as of September 30, 2023, the Nifty Alpha 50 Index outperformed the Nifty 50 Index and the Nifty 500 Index, earning a 5% alpha over both broad-based indices despite increased volatility. Savvy investors looking to add an aggressive strategy to their portfolio could include the Bandhan Nifty Alpha 50 Index Fund to boost the portfolio’s growth potential.”

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How to invest in Bandhan Nifty Alpha 50 Index Fund?

Bandhan Nifty Alpha 50 Index Fund investments can be made through regulated mutual fund distributors, internet platforms, and directly.

Bandhan AMC (formerly IDFC Asset Management Company Limited) was founded in 2000 with the goal of assisting savers in becoming investors and creating wealth. Bandhan AMC serves its customers with a wide range of responsibly crafted investment products such as Mutual Funds and Portfolio Management Services (PMS), which are managed by a seasoned investment team and seek to provide performance that is consistent with the product’s well-defined objectives.

Also read :- 7th Pay Commission: Good news for Railway employees as Board announces 4% hike in Dearness Allowance (DA). Details here

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The equity market uptrend was primarily bolstered by declining oil prices, positive domestic PMI data, and the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to maintain the status quo in the repo rate. However, the RBI continues to consider inflation a significant risk, and its tone was hawkish on Friday when it announced open market operations (OMO) to manage liquidity, which resulted in a substantial increase in the yield on 10-year bonds. Gains were constrained by the substantial FII outflow caused by elevated US bond yields and the US dollar index.

During the week, the BSE Sensex increased by 167 points to 65,996, the Nifty50 rose by 15 points to 19,654, and the Nifty Midcap 100 index declined by 0.6 percent, whereas the Smallcap 100 index increased by 0.7 percent. Pressure was felt on the automotive, banking, energy, pharmaceutical, and oil & gas sectors, while technology and real estate equities trended higher.

“A stronger dollar index and rising US bond yields have deterred foreign investors, resulting in market weakness.” “Additionally, strong employment figures from the United States this week have sparked apprehension regarding a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as evidenced by the surge in US bond yields that suggests an imminent interest rate hike,” said Vinod Nair, director of research at Geojit Financial Services.

Additionally, he stated that the market has been affected by the RBI’s hawkish posture, especially in its management of liquidity to combat inflationary risks. Nevertheless, the market has received some solace from robust domestic PMI data and corrections in crude oil prices.

He believes that starting next week, the focus will shift to quarterly results from the IT and finance industries.

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Here are 10 key factors to watch out for:

Corporate Quarterly Earnings

CPI Inflation

The CPI inflation rate for September, which is released on October 12, will also be closely monitored by market participants in addition to earnings. As a result of the decline in LPG and vegetable prices, the CPI inflation rate, which is a crucial metric for the MPC, is anticipated to further decline.

“Since August, when it was 6.8 percent year-over-year, we estimate that CPI inflation decelerated significantly in September to 5.3 percent, returning to the RBI’s target range of 2-6 percent after a two-month absence.” According to Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics at Barclays, the headline rate probably declined due to a reduction in food and petroleum prices. Bajoria further stated that core inflation probably remained stable, enabling the RBI to maintain policy rates unaltered.

Furthermore, reports on foreign exchange reserves for the week ending October 6 and industrial output data for August are scheduled to be disseminated on October 13 and October 12, respectively. These reports pertain to the months of September and balance of trade and WPI inflation.

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FOMC Minutes & US Inflation

Global investors will closely monitor the FOMC minutes for the September policy meeting, which will be released on October 11th, and US inflation, which is scheduled for October 12th, as well as the upcoming speeches of several Fed officials.

Inflation, an essential data point for the Federal Reserve to consider when determining the fed funds rate, is expected to moderate in September from August’s 3.7 percent to August’s 3.6 percent, but to remain well above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Fed officials estimate inflation to reach 2.6% by the end of 2024 while ruling out a severe recession, as indicated by the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting. August’s core inflation rate was 4.3%, down from 4.7% the previous month.

China will also disclose its September inflation data. In August, the inflation rate was 0.1%.

Global Economic Data Points

Here are key global economic data points to watch out for:

FII Flow

Foreign institutional investors sold a net Rs 8,400 crore worth of shares in the cash segment during the previous week as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 16-year high and the US dollar index reached its highest level since November of last year. Domestic institutional investors were able to offset the FII outflow, but the outflow may persist until US bond yields and the dollar index cool down, according to experts.

In the first week of October, DIIs net bought shares worth Rs 4,400 crore, while the US 10-year Treasury yield concluded the week at 4.8% and the US dollar index at 106.10.

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Oil Prices

As India is a net oil importer, the sharp decline in oil prices from a 10-month peak was positive for the Indian equity markets. Oil prices were affected during the week by rising US bond yields, a strengthened dollar, and global demand concerns. International benchmark Brent crude futures corrected by 8.26 percent during the week, the largest weekly loss since March, to settle at $84.58 a barrel, continuing downtrend for third consecutive week from the high of $95.96 a barrel.

After a precipitous decline in price, Saumil Gandhi, senior analyst – commodities at HDFC Securities, expects the crude oil price to consolidate in a lower-end range with a negative bias.

Technical View

The Nifty50 exhibited a strong recovery after defending the 19,300 level and ended a two-week losing trend. On the weekly charts, the index has formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a small body, a long lower shadow, and a small upper shadow, resembling a Hammer candlestick pattern, which is a bullish reversal pattern. This raised prospects for northward journey in coming sessions, which if comes true in following trade then 19,800-20,000 can’t be ruled out with crucial support at 19,600-19,300 area, experts said.

In the recent past, Nifty failed to surpass the short-term moving average (20 exponential moving average established at 19,670) and is currently hovering in the same region. A decisive close above 19,670 could help the index extend its rebound to the 19,800-20,000 range, according to Ajit Mishra, vice president of technical research at Religare Broking.

On the downside, he believes the region between 19,200 and 19,450 would continue to provide support in the event of a reversal.

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F&O Cues, India VIX

The Options data also indicated that the Nifty may encounter significant resistance between 19,900 and 20,000, with crucial support between 19,600 and 19,500.

According to weekly options data, the highest Call open interest (OI) was at the 20,000 strike, followed by the 20,500 and 19,900 strikes, with the most significant Call writing at the 20,500 strike, followed by the 20,000 and 19,900 strikes.

On the Put side, the highest open interest was recorded at the 19,500 strike, followed by the 19,600 and 19,000 strikes, with writing occurring at the 19,600 strike, followed by the 19,000 and 19,500 strikes.

During the previous week, volatility moderated substantially, providing solace to the bulls. The India VIX, which measures the expected volatility of the Nifty50 over the next thirty days, decreased by 10% from 11.45 to 10.3, the lowest level since July.

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IPO

The primary market appears to be experiencing a deceleration in activity, as only one initial public offering (IPO) is scheduled to commence subscriptions the following week. In the SME segment, Arvind and Company Shipping Agency of Gujarat will open its Rs 14.74-crore public offering from October 12-16 at an offer price of Rs 45 per share, whereas Committed Cargo Care will conclude its IPO on October 10.

In the mainboard segment, Plaza Wires, a wires manufacturing company based in Delhi, is scheduled to commence trading on the bourses on October 13. Arabian Petroleum, a manufacturer of lubricants, and E Factor Experiences, an event management firm, are both expected to list their shares on the NSE Emerge on October 9, in accordance with the IPO schedule.

On October 10, among others, City Crops Agro and Goyal Salt & Kontor Space will make their debuts on the BSE SME. On October 11, Oneclick Logistics India and Canarys Automations are scheduled to list their shares on the NSE Emerge.

Additionally, on October 12, Vivaa Tradecom is scheduled to commence trading on the BSE SME. On the same day, Vishnusurya Projects and Infra, Sharp Chucks and Machines, and Plada Infotech Services will all make their debuts on the NSE Emerge. Moreover, as of October 13, Karnika Industries will be listed on the NSE Emerge.

According to the IPO schedule, Sunita Tools shares are expected to be listed on the BSE SME on October 9; however, no circular from the exchange has been issued as of yet.

Also read :- RBI Policy | Higher for longer remains relevant not only for the world but also for India, says Indranil Pan

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place next week:

Disclaimer: The opinions and investment recommendations put forth by investment specialists on Moneypoise.com are purely their own and do not reflect the stance of the website’s administration or its staff. Users are encouraged to consult certified experts prior to making investment decisions, as stated on Moneypoise.com.

The post Dalal Street Week Ahead | India, US inflation, quarterly earnings among 10 key factors to watch next week appeared first on Republic Aeon.

The Nifty50 rose 1.97 percent or 384.7 points this week to settle at 19,820, while the BSE Sensex rose 1.85 percent or 1,211.75 points to conclude at 66,598.91.

The broader indexes continued to excel this week, with the BSE Mid-cap index climbing 4%, the BSE Small-cap index growing 2.2 percent, and the BSE Large-cap index rising 2%.

“The domestic indices gradually rallied throughout the week, buoyed by strong macroeconomic data such as robust GDP and PMI figures, which painted a positive picture for the market.” Despite a mixed global trend characterized by poor indications, Indian shares have remained resilient, bolstered by this strong economic outlook,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.

Crude oil price increases, US unemployment claims statistics for August, disappointing Chinese service PMI and trade figures, and rising gas costs due to strikes in Australia stirred global alarm. However, despite their relatively high valuations, mid- and small-cap stocks drew substantial purchasing activity in the overall market. Furthermore, increased order inflows made sectors such as infrastructure and real estate particularly appealing to investors during the week.

“The market is now eagerly awaiting inflation and industrial production data to provide further guidance,” he said.

All sectoral indices finished in the green, with the BSE Realty index and BSE Capital Goods index each up 5%, the BSE Energy index up 4.7 percent, and the BSE Power index up 4.7 percent.

The BSE Small-cap index increased by 2.2 percent. MMTC, GTL Infrastructure, National Peroxide, Cochin Shipyard, Bombay Burmah Trading Corporation, Magadh Sugar & Energy, GMR Power, SpiceJet, Vikas WSP, Ashapura Minechem, Transformers and Rectifiers India, and Sadhana Nitrochem all increased their stakes by 21 to 50 percent.

“Both the Nifty and the Sensex gained around 2% and outperformed the majority of global equity markets.” Mid-cap and small-cap indices surpass the large-cap index. Macro emotions remained unpredictable as European and US bank flaws were highlighted. “Indian equity markets remain concerned about a slowdown in growth, higher interest rates, and valuation, even as inflation (particularly food inflation) remains elevated both globally and domestically,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of equities Research (Retail), Kotak Securities.

“The majority of indices finished in the green. During the week, FPIs/FIIs were net sellers while DIIs were net buyers. GST collections for July (collected in August) were 10.8 percent higher year on year at Rs 1.59 trillion (June: Rs 1.65 trillion).”

US Treasury yields dipped on Friday as investors worried about the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes in the wake of new economic data. Initial weekly jobless claims were 216,000 on Thursday, less than the 230,000 forecast. The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.1 percent in April-June compared to the previous three months, a lower rate than previously projected, and by 0.5 percent year on year after expanding by more than 1% last year. In Asia, China’s exports decreased 8.8 percent year on year in August, while imports declined 7.3 percent,” he noted.

This week, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 9,321.41 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) acquired shares worth Rs 4,572.14 crore.

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Where is Nifty50 headed?

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

On the hourly chart, Nifty has reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel; consequently, a consolidation is likely to occur in the coming week. The likely range of consolidation is between 19850 and 19670. The daily and hourly momentum indicators have a positive crossover, which is a buy signal. Therefore, this is likely only a consolidation, and any dip should be viewed as a purchasing opportunity.

On the upside, we anticipate 19900, which is close to the swing high reached in July. In terms of price levels, 19630 – 19670 will serve as a crucial support zone, whereas 19860 – 19900 will serve as an immediate resistance zone.

Amol Athawale, Vice President – Technical Research, Kotak Securities:

After a promising reversal formation, the Nifty has maintained a higher bottom formation and is trading comfortably above the 50-day and 20-day SMA, which is largely bullish. In addition, it has formed a long bullish candle on weekly charts, which supports a continuation of the present uptrend.

For trend-following traders, the key support levels would be 19700 to 19650, and above those levels, the price could rise to 19900. Further gains could push the market to 20,000. In contrast, below 19650, the uptrend would be susceptible to a correction until the 50-day simple moving average or 19550-19500 levels.

Also read :–India and US resolve final WTO dispute, strengthen bilateral trade relations

Disclaimer: The opinions and investment advice expressed by experts on moneypoise.com are their own and do not reflect the views of the site or its management. moneypoise.com advises users to verify with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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The bulls have regained their footing and are protecting the critical support zone between 44,000 and 43,800. There is recent published writing in this area as well, which bodes well for its popularity.The index’s next key resistance point is at 44,500. If the price is able to break out above this resistance level, it will likely begin a new upward trend.As long as the Bank Nifty Index has a closing price above 44,000 and below 43,800, the prevailing mood and undercurrent are favorable.

Wipro

The daily chart for Wipro reveals the construction of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which indicates a period of consolidation for the company. This pattern is accompanied by decreased trading volumes, which hints at the possibility of a breakout in the not too distant future.A purchase signal has been confirmed after a bullish crossover was seen in the momentum indicator known as the RSI (Relative Strength Index). This points to the possibility that there is a buildup of bullish momentum in the stock.There is a major support level detected at 405, which indicates that this level has functioned as a floor for the price of the stock. This level may serve as a buffer in the event that there is a decline in the stock price.If the symmetrical triangle pattern ends up with a bullish breakout, the potential upside objective for Wipro may be in the area of 450 to 470. This indicates that there is the chance of a sizeable price increase in the event that the pattern is successful.

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Tata Steel

TATASTEEL reached its highest peak in several days as the trading session came to a close, indicating a surge in bullish sentiment among market participants. In addition, the share price has steadfastly held its position above a major moving average, which is another indication of the stock’s strength. A bullish crossover pattern is currently being displayed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). There is a possibility that the share price may move higher, possibly toward the 137/140 level, in the relatively short term. On the other hand, in the downward direction, there is a support level built at 120.

Also read :- Walmart invests $3.5 billion in Flipkart, ups stake to 80.5%

This article was written by Kunal Shah, who works at LKP Securities as a Senior Technical and Derivative analyst.

Disclaimer: The opinions and suggestions offered in this article are those of the individual researchers who contributed to it. These opinions do not reflect those of Mint in any way. Before making any decisions regarding their investments, we strongly recommend that potential investors consult with qualified professionals.

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Disappointing industrial production for June, a larger-than-anticipated increase in CPI inflation, fears of a likely additional rate hike by the Fed in light of strong retail sales data, currency depreciation versus the US dollar, rising US bond yields exerting pressure on FII flow, and a slowing Chinese economy all weighed on market sentiment.

According to experts, consolidation may persist with a negative bias in the coming week, with the focus on Powell’s speech, MPC policy minutes, FII sentiment, and global equity market activity.

The Nifty50 fell 118 points to 19,310 and the BSE Sensex fell 374 points to 64,949 as metal, banking & financial services, technology, oil & gas, and pharmaceutical equities weighed on the markets.

We expect domestic and global markets to remain under pressure next week due to Fed Chair Powell’s speech and the release of additional macroeconomic data, according to Siddhartha Khemka, chief of retail research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

However, he anticipates that the action will persist in the broader market alongside sector rotation.

Here are 10 key factors to watch out next week:

Jio Financial Services Listing

On August 21, the entity demerged from billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance, Jio Financial Services (formerly known as Reliance Strategic Investments), will be listed on the exchanges, drawing investor attention to the index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL).

Reliance’s financial services division is now worth Rs 261.85 per share following the spin-off last month.

On August 23, Jio Financial Services will join the MSCI Global Standard Index after already being included in the FTSE Indices.

MPC Meeting Minutes

In addition, on August 24, all attendees can find the minutes from the MPC’s August 10 meeting. After the Reserve Bank of India raised its Consumer Price Index inflation forecast for FY24 (to 5.4% from 5.1% earlier) due to the spike in food prices, experts believe the rate cut cycle will be pushed into FY25 instead of the fourth quarter of FY24. The Consumer Price Index increased by 7.44 percent in July, which was above market forecasts of a 4.87 percent increase.

Jackson Hole Symposium

The entire world will be listening to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole economic policy conference on August 24-26. On August 25th, Powell will give a speech at an event organised by the Kansas City Fed. As the Fed remains firmly committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% goal and continues to take a data-dependent approach in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate going forward, Powell has already hinted at one more rate hike in upcoming policy meetings. Inflation in July was 3.2% according to the CPI and 4.7% according to the core CPI.

As a result, all eyes will be on his comments for any clear signals about when the current cycle of rate hikes might come to a stop and a new period of rate cuts might begin.

Here are key global economic data points to watch out next week:

FIIs Mood

The major reason for the FII outflow from emerging markets like India in August, after significant buying in the previous three months, is the rise in the US dollar index to 103.43 (from below the 100 mark in mid-July) and in US 10-year treasury yields to 4.25 percent (from 3.8 percent in mid-July). Despite the best efforts of DIIs to counteract the FII outflow, experts predict that the selling by FIIs will continue in the near future.

While foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth Rs 3,379 crore last week, bringing their monthly outflow to nearly Rs 11,000 crore in the cash segment, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were able to more than make up for the FII outflow by buying shares worth Rs 3,892 crore last week, bringing their net buying for the month to around Rs 9,250 crore.

Indian Rupee

The Indian rupee’s performance will also be closely monitored by traders, as it recently set a record low of 83.42 versus the US dollar and a record closing low of 83.12 last week (on weekly basis) due to rising oil prices and the US dollar index. The rupee has been weak for four weeks running due to factors including profit taking in the stock market and FII outflow, and this trend is expected to continue in the days ahead.

We anticipate the Rupee will trade with a negative bias due to widespread fear in international markets and the Dollar’s general strength. Research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, Anuj Choudhary, warned that a rise in crude oil prices could have a negative impact on the rupee.

On the other hand, he thinks that the rupee might be supported at lower levels by the Reserve Bank of India.

Domestic Economic Data Points

On the domestic data front, the foreign exchange reserves for the week ended August 18 will be announced on the same day as the bank loan and deposit growth figures for the week ended August 11.

Technical View

The Nifty50 made lower highs for the fourth week in a row and closed at its lowest level since the last week of June on a weekly basis, but it held above its 50-day EMA (exponential moving average), which corresponds with its 10-week EMA (exponential moving average) on an intraday basis, and above its closing level of 19,300. Therefore, the 19,300-19,250 zone is anticipated to be important for further fall into the psychological 19,000 mark, while the 19,400-19,500 zone is predicted to act as a barrier to the upside.

“Nifty has respected the short term moving average i.e. 50-day EMA twice of late, which currently lies around 19,250 and its break could push the index to 19,100 first, and then to the 18,900 level,” Ajit Mishra, SVP – technical research at Religare Bros., said.

In the event of a reversal, he sees resistance between the 20-day EMA and the 19,650 mark.

F&O Cues

According to the Option data, the range of 19,400-19,500 represents major resistance in the upcoming trading sessions, while the range of 19,300-19,200 represents key support.

Weekly Call open interest peaked at the 19,400 level, followed by the 19,500 level, with significant writing at the 19,400, 19,300, and 19,600 levels, while Put open interest and writing peaked at the 19,300 and 19,200 levels, respectively.

The India VIX rose 5.4% throughout the week, finishing at 12.14 levels, the highest level since the third week of May. This is the third consecutive week that volatility has increased. Additional street caution may be warranted if the VIX rises above the 13.5–14 range , experts said.

IPO

Aeroflex Industries, a manufacturer of flexible flow solution products, will open its Rs 351-crore IPO from April 22-24 at a price band of Rs 102-108 per share, and the infrastructure company Vishnu Prakash R Punglia will launch its Rs 309-crore maiden public issue on August 24 at a price band of Rs 94-99 per share, so the primary market will remain active next week as well.

According to the IPO schedule, on August 22 Pyramid Technoplast will complete its Rs 153-crore IPO, and on August 23 TVS Supply Chain Solutions will make its debut on the bourses.

Also Read : Mcap of seven of top 10 firms declines by Rs 80,200 cr; TCS, HDFC Bank biggest laggards

Sungarner Energies, a provider of power solutions, will begin accepting subscriptions for its initial public offering (IPO) on April 21–23 at an offer price of Rs 83 per share; Shoora Designs will end its IPO on August 21; Crop Life Science and Bondada Engineering will both end their IPOs on August 22; and so on. Next week, on August 23, Shelter Pharma shares will be listed on the stock market.

Corporate Action

Here are key corporate actions taking place next week:

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This week, the BSE Sensex decreased 0.57 percent, or 373.99 points, to finish at 64,948.66, while the Nifty50 decreased 0.60 percent, or 118.1 points, to end at 19,310.20.

The BSE Small-cap index ended on a flat note, while the BSE Large-cap index declined 0.7% and the BSE Mid-cap index fell 0.5%.

“Sensex and Nifty fell this week due to weakness in the majority of global equity markets.” The BSE Mid-cap and BSE Small-cap indices experienced a reversal. The majority of sectoral indices posted negative returns. BSE Metals, BSE Energy, and BSE Oil & Gas are among the sectoral indices that underperformed the broader markets, according to Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.

“Weak monsoon conditions prevailed across the majority of India in August, culminating in a deficient monsoon. In July 2023, India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased to 7.4% (from 4.8% in June 2023), as a result of rising vegetable prices. This week, the price of Brent crude oil experienced a correction, but it remains above the price range observed a few months ago. Consumption demand weakened in the first quarter of fiscal year 24; however, investment demand remained robust. Additionally, Q1FY24 results demonstrated a further increase in profitability,” he added.On the sectorial front, the BSE Metal index fell 4%, the BSE Telecom index fell 2%, the BSE Oil & Gas index fell 1.2%, and the BSE Power index rose 0.5%.

The BSE Small-cap index concluded on a note of parity. Hindustan Oil Exploration Company, Rico Auto, Sree Rayalaseema Hi Strength, Lloyds Steels Industries, Universal Cables, GE Power India, Pix Transmissions, and Globus Spirits all experienced losses ranging from 12% to 32%.

Also Read : Moody’s affirms India’s Baa3 rating, but warns of political tensions

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It was also decided that Indus Towers and Page Industries will be removed from the Nifty Next 50 along with the aforementioned three companies. In their stead will come companies like Punjab National Bank, Shriram Finance, Trent, TVS Motor, and Zydus Lifesciences.

The Nifty 100 index will undergo the same round of replacement beginning on the 29th of September. According to a press statement from NSE, in addition to the aforementioned five companies, Tata Motors would also be included in Nifty 100.

ACC, which operates Nykaa, has seen its stock value drop by 22.21 percent year to date, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, which operates Indus Towers, has seen its stock value drop by 14.28 percent, and Page Industries, which operates Indus Towers, has seen its stock value fall by 1.72 percent.

The BSE’s closing prices for the day of August 17 were as follows: ACC: Rs 1,897.80; Nykaa: Rs 133; Indus Towers: Rs 161.55; and Page Industries: Rs 41,200.NSE has also made adjustments to the larger Nifty 500 index, with a total of 18 businesses scheduled for elimination on September 29. Indiabulls Real Estate, Mahindra Logistics, Hinduja Global Solutions, Jindal Worldwide, and Godrej Agrovet are just a few examples.

An alternative group of 18 companies, including Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, Gillette India, Glenmark Life Sciences, Alok Industries, Procter & Gamble Health, and Kirloskar Ferrous Industries, would take their place.

Also Read : Decent listing | Yudiz Solutions closes with 10% premium on debut

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The BSE Sensex gained 481 points, closing at 65,721, while the Nifty50 rose 135 points, closing at 19,517, and forming a bullish candlestick pattern.

“Last week’s low was at 19,296 levels, so a break there would signal a decline to 18,838. Nifty currently stands at a pivotal point in its development. According to Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder & CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors, any directional move would likely take place after next week’s rangebound move between 19,290 & 19,800 levels.

A break of this range, in his opinion, would signal a significant shift in the market. He suggested using a mild Options approach for range bound or consolidation movement during these periods.

The Nifty Midcap 100 and the Nifty Smallcap 100 both rose by 0.8 percent on the back of this optimistic market breadth, indicating strong purchasing activity across the board.

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This week, both the BSE Sensex (down 0.66 percent, or 438.95 points), and the Nifty50 (down 0.65 percent, or 129.05 points), finished at lower numbers than their previous weekly closing levels.

The BSE SmallCap Index increased by 1.5%, the BSE MidCap Index ended unchanged, and the BSE LargeCap Index decreased by 0.6%.

“The week started off on a hopeful note, with expectations that the policy-tightening era can come to an end as a result of falling inflation rates around the world. However, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that “worries across the globe were triggered by negative news regarding the US rating downgrade, weak factory activity data from the Eurozone and China, and prolonged FII selling triggered by rising US bond yields.”

“As fears about the state of the US economy grew, investors fled to the dollar in search of safety, sending the dollar index soaring. Nonetheless, domestic markets rebounded from the effect of weak global cues, with IT and healthcare sectors leading the way in terms of strong domestic results.

While manufacturing in India remained strong in July, it slowed for the second consecutive month. Conversely, thanks to an increase in new orders, especially from outside, the domestic service PMI surpassed market expectations and hit a 13-year high. Nair remarked, “Investors are waiting for the next MPC meeting to see if the RBI will maintain its policy rate at 6.5 percent.”

The Nifty Realty index plummeted 4.2%, the Nifty PSU Bank index fell 4.0%, the Nifty FMCG index lost 1.7%, the Nifty IT index jumped 3.0%, and the Nifty Pharma index rose roughly 2%.

Lloyds Steels Industries, Digispice Technologies, MPS, Optiemus Infracom, Sanghi Industries, Jai Balaji Industries, HCL Infosystems, Udaipur Cement Works, WPIL, and Dilip Buildcon all contributed to a 1.5 percent increase in the BSE SmallCap index.

Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, Equitas Small Finance Bank, Tracxn Technologies, Sintex Plastics Technology, MSP Steel & Power, Ador Welding, Thangamayil Jewellery, Redington, Shivalik Bimetal Controls, Bhagiradha Chemicals and Industries, and Sintex Plastics Technology all saw their share prices drop by 10-15%.

Nifty found some relief at the end of a turbulent week by climbing back above the 19,500 level. The IT sector sparked the recovery, but the BFSI sector, which was hit the worst, carried it ahead and restored optimism in the market. Keep in mind that we haven’t made it through this ordeal unscathed. For the first time since March 31, 2023, we are technically positioned below the 20-day EMA (exponential moving average) for the Nifty. Therefore, unless the Nifty closes over 19,550-1,600, complacency is not warranted. Angel One’s Head of Research, Technical and Derivatives, Sameet Chavan, advised, “It’s best to avoid aggressive trades.”

If there are further unusual events on a global scale, the Nifty could test the 19,400-19,300 zone again. If prices drop below this level, they could face more selling pressure and head towards the next key area between 19,000 and 18,800.

For the positive scenario to come to fruition, it is essential to get over 19,600, and all international trends must cease entirely. The market’s mixed signals for the week’s close suggest taking things slowly for the time being. Chavan also expressed hope that the present downturn would not be prolonged for too much longer, and that the fabled 20,000 mark would be reached soon.

While domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth Rs 5,617.33 crore this week, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,545.64 crore.

Where is Nifty50 headed?

According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty dropped significantly after the US credit rating was lowered from AAA to AA+, resulting in a breakdown from the recent consolidation on the daily timeframe. The index has fallen below the 21-day EMA for the first time since March 29 due to the recent decline. 19 300 individuals served as immediate support. On the upside, however, 19,566 is likely to function as a significant resistance level.

As long as the Nifty stays below 19,566, sentiment is likely to remain negative. In contrast, a decisive rise above 19,566 could propel the index to 19,700–19,750. A failure to advance above 19,566 could trigger selling pressure, however.

According to Jatin Gedia, a Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, the Nifty was able to recoup some of its losses in the final trading session of the week, following severe selling throughout the week. On a weekly basis, however, it has closed in the red for the second week in a row. The pullback is likely to stall in the 19,560–19,600 range, where the 40-hour moving average and the hourly upper Bollinger band provide resistance. Therefore, this rebound should be marketed to.

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The hourly momentum indicator has also reached the equilibrium line, indicating that the retreat is complete and can commence a new downward cycle. Overall, the trajectory remains negative, and we anticipate levels of 19,100 in the near future, he added.

The Bank Nifty has also experienced a decline. It is unlikely, however, to result in a larger trend reversal. The pullback is likely to end in the 45,100–45,200 range, where the 40-hour moving average and the hourly upper Bollinger band provide resistance. The hourly momentum indicator has recorded a retracement to the equilibrium line, indicating that the retracement has reached completion and can now initiate a new cycle. Overall, the trajectory is still negative, and we anticipate a short-term decline to 44,000.

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Both the Sensex (which rose 480.57 points, or 0.74%, to 65,721.25) and the Nifty (which rose 135.30 points, or 0.70%, to 19,517) increased as of market close.

The market opened higher and kept rising throughout the day, eventually closing around its high. This occurred despite mixed global indications.

The BSE Sensex and Nifty50 both fell by 0.6% throughout the course of the week.

Top Nifty gainers included Cipla, IndusInd Bank, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, and Bharti Airtel, while top losers included SBI, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, NTPC, and Maruti Suzuki.

Two industries saw gains of 1%: pharmaceuticals and information technology, while financial services, industrial metals, and capital goods all gained 0.5%. Automakers and utility companies were among the biggest sellers.

The BSE mid and small cap indices both saw gains of 0.6%.

LIC Housing Finance, Info Edge, and Jubilant FoodWorks all had significant increases in their buildups, while Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail, Mahanagar Gas, and Cummins India all had negligible increases.

Among individual stocks, a volume spike of more than 300 percent was seen in Indiabulls Housing Finance, Cummins India and Info Edge.

More than 200 stocks touched their 52-week high on the BSE, including Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri, SML Isuzu, NBCC, Info Edge, Lupin, Karnataka Bank, JK Tyre, Gravita India, Dixon Technologies and Apollo Tyres.

Outlook for August 7

Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas:

The Nifty started the day up and continued rising, eventually finishing the day up by about 130 points. The Nifty recovered some of its weeklong losses on Friday after experiencing heavy selling activity earlier in the week. However, on a weekly basis, it has already closed in the red for the second week running. The decline is quite likely to stall in the 19560 – 19600 range, where the 40-hour moving average and the hourly upper Bollinger band are located as resistance. Therefore, this rebound represents a buying opportunity. Even the hourly momentum indicator has hit its neutral line, suggesting the correction has completed its maturation and is ready to start a new cycle to the negative. In general, the trend is still down, and in the near future, we anticipate seeing values around 19100.

The Bank Nifty has also had a correction, although this should not be seen as the beginning of a wider trend reversal. The downturn is quite likely to end where the 40-hour moving average and the hourly upper Bollinger band meet, at around 45100 to 45200. The retreat has reached maturity and can begin a new cycle, as seen by the hourly momentum indicator’s crossing of the equilibrium line. We still see a general downward trend, and a drop to around 44,000 seems likely in the near future.

Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking:

The market recovered from its recent decline and climbed by more than half a percent. Following the gap to the upside at the opening bell, Nifty traded in a narrow range all day until closing at 19,518. Meanwhile, the sectoral front showed a mixed trend, with IT, pharma, and banking all posting decent gains and keeping the traders active. The broader indices also rose, by roughly the same percentage.

Nifty has recovered after touching support at 19,300, although it has not yet regained its position above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). For the recovery to continue, we must prioritise sustainability over maintenance of the status quo. Even though global indexes are falling, they have not yet reversed their upward trajectory, which is reassuring. In the face of conflicting data, it’s best to proceed with caution and limit the size of your positions.

Disclaimer: The opinions and recommendations offered by Moneypoise.com’s investing experts are those of the experts themselves and not of the website or its administration. Moneypoise.com recommends that customers seek the advice of professionals before making any financial commitments.

Also Read : Technical View | Nifty rebounds, but sustainability above 19,500 key for further sharp upmove

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