Ajit Karn
Xi Jinping’s ostentatious visit to Moscow highlighted a growing but unequal alliance between the two countries, cementing China’s status as Vladimir Putin’s “big brother.”
Recently indicted for war crimes, the KGB agent-turned-president of Russia is appreciative of any diplomatic assistance he can receive.
The Chinese president’s three-day excursion to Moscow with all the lights and whistles was a victory in itself.
In any case, it is difficult to be portrayed as an international pariah when hosting one of the most potent persons in the world.
Putin, however, who was mired in Ukraine and whose economy was laboring under the weight of Western sanctions and projected to contract by about 2.5% this year, required more than a diplomatic grasp and a smile.
It is difficult to discern what occurred behind closed doors. In public, however, Xi delivered few of Putin’s most important requests.
China’s leader pledged a trade lifeline and moral support, but it was more notable that he did not commit to providing armaments for Russia’s depleted forces in Ukraine, a move that would have resulted in Western sanctions against China.
In addition, there was no long-term commitment from China to purchase massive quantities of Russian gas that no longer flows to Europe.
According to the International Energy Agency, European imports of Russian gas have decreased by 60-80 billion cubic metres annually, leaving a gaping crater in Russia’s finances.
Xi has taken advantage of this by purchasing a portion of this supply at a discount.
However, he has also declined Putin’s request to construct a pipeline carrying gas from extensive Siberian fields to China, citing the need for further study.
Having witnessed Russia’s ability to cut off Europe’s gas supply, Beijing does not appear eager to develop a long-term dependence on Russian gas through the so-called “Power of Siberia 2” pipeline.
This dearth of commitment “clearly demonstrates the amoral and self-serving nature of China’s ‘friendship’ with Russia,” according to Asia Society expert Philipp Ivanov.
‘Junior companion’
As far as Xi is concerned, the visit required few concessions in exchange for attaining significant strategic and symbolic objectives, including presenting a united front against the United States, enhancing Xi’s statesman status, and increasing the perception of Russian dependence on China.
“Even though Xi’s meetings with Putin took place on Putin’s home turf, it was crystal clear who was in charge,” said Brian Whitmore, a Russia expert at the Atlantic Council.
“The body language spoke volumes. This week, Xi confidently reclined back in his chair, relaxed, and smiled during a joint public appearance. Putin appeared apprehensive and agitated as he leaned forward and fidgeted.”
Chinese state television aided Xi’s reputation as a statesman at home by broadcasting lengthy clips of him being greeted on the airport tarmac by an honor guard and by flag-waving Moscow residents along his motorcade route.
The visit of Xi Jinping appeared to be part of a concerted effort to increase China’s diplomatic influence.
In recent decades, Beijing has extended its economic influence from Asia to Africa and expanded its security presence well beyond the Chinese mainland, with a military base in Djibouti, naval facilities in the South China Sea, and small-scale security deployments in the Solomon Islands.
China’s diplomatic authority has lingered behind its economic and military might until recently.
China’s proposal of a peace plan for Ukraine, its mediation of a detente between archrivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Xi’s high-profile visit to Moscow are beginning to alter this trend.
According to Whitmore, Putin’s vulnerable position was also exploited during the visit.
Whitmore stated that Xi’s visit “illustrated how dependent Russia has become on China since being cut off from the global financial system, Western markets, and Western technology.”
During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was regarded as China’s “big brother.” This represents a significant role reversal.
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Putin has no option but to acknowledge that the Sino-Russian relationship is developing under Beijing’s terms. Now, he is Xi’s subordinate collaborator,” he explained.
Experts are quick to point out, however, that Putin, a shrewd operator who has survived decades in the ruthless world of Kremlin politics, may be dependent, but that does not make him subservient.
“While the relationship is clearly unequal — China’s economy is ten times larger than Russia’s — and Moscow’s dependence on China is growing rapidly, it is too early to call Russia a vassal state,” Ivanov said.
