Ajit Karn
Lebanon: The following is a summary of the situation in regions of the Middle East where Iran and Saudi Arabia have been involved in proxy conflicts and where an agreement brokered by Beijing to re-establish relations between the two regional powers could have an impact.
Yemen
Riyadh led a Western-backed coalition against the Houthi movement in Yemen in 2015, after the Iran-aligned group deposed the internationally recognised government in the capital, Sanaa.
For years, the conflict has been a military stalemate. The Houthis, de facto authorities in North Yemen and holders of border regions with Saudi Arabia, have repeatedly launched missile and drone attacks against the kingdom, which has attempted to withdraw.
Following a U.N.-brokered ceasefire, Riyadh and the Houthis resumed direct negotiations with the assistance of Oman in 2017. The cease-fire expired in October, but has essentially persisted.
Restored relations between Riyadh and Teheran may facilitate a deal between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
The Yemen conflict was also a source of tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia during the administration of President Joseph Biden, which imposed restrictions on U.S. arms sales to the kingdom.
Syria
Iran has provided Bashar al-Assad with military, economic, and diplomatic support since his crackdown on demonstrations in 2011 left him isolated.
China also defended Syria at the United Nations and maintained political and economic ties with Damascus.
Riyadh initially supported rebels attempting to depose Assad in order to undermine Tehran. Saudi support for the armed and political opposition has diminished as Iran’s aid has helped Assad reverse the tide.
The Saudi-Iranian agreement coincides with the thawing of Arab isolation of Assad. Saudi Arabia has stated that increased engagement could result in Syria rejoining the Arab League.
Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs hailed the agreement as a “essential measure” that could promote regional stability. The opposition’s umbrella organisation remained silent.
Israel has attacked Iranian positions in Syria, in an effort to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon
Since many years, Lebanese politics have been divided between a pro-Iran alliance commanded by the potent armed group Hezbollah and a pro-Saudi coalition.
Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states withdrew their ambassadors from Lebanon in 2021, citing Hezbollah’s control over the country.
Since the return of the envoys, Lebanon’s financial crisis has worsened, and the country now confronts an unprecedented political crisis, with no president for months and a cabinet with limited authority.
The resumption of diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh has inspired optimism that paralysis may soon end. The “positive interpretation” of the news, according to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, should prompt Lebanon’s legislators to “immediately” elect a president.
Hezbollah described the agreement as a positive development but cautioned that its complete ramifications remain uncertain. The group supported the candidature of the Christian politician Suleiman Frangieh for president, but according to two sources, Saudi Arabia opposes him.
Iraq
After Saddam Hussein was deposed by the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iran increased its political, security, and economic influence in Iraq, causing Saudi concern.
In 2019, Iran launched a drone attack over Iraqi airspace against Saudi hydrocarbon facilities. After more than two decades, the reopening of a Saudi-Iraqi border crossing the following year sparked optimism for improved relations.
Baghdad hosted direct negotiations between its two neighbours, but they stagnated due to Iraq’s political crisis in the past year.
Baghdad viewed the agreement as an opportunity to “turn the page.” Instead of being destabilised by U.S., Gulf Arab, and Iranian score-settling, the Iraqis hope for a general regional detente that will enable their country to reconstruct.
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Maritime Protection
Friction between Iran and the West has also manifested itself in the waters of the Gulf, through which the majority of the world’s crude transits.
Several tanker assaults occurred there in 2019, after former U.S. President Donald Trump abandoned a nuclear accord with Iran and reinstated sanctions against it. In an effort to de-escalate, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia initiated direct negotiations with Tehran.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, has seized munitions shipments believed to have originated in Iran. In recent years, Iran and Israel have also traded accusations of attacking each other’s vessels.
