Ajit Karn
The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its annual threat assessment for 2023 on Wednesday (local time), which warned of threats posed to the US by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
The report also warned of global challenges like climate change and evolving technologies that could “disrupt” traditional business and society and create “unprecedented vulnerabilities.”
The United States is anticipated to face a “complex” security environment and will have to confront two “critical” strategic challenges: rising powers, such as China, seeking to dominate the global order.
According to the report, “These two strategic challenges will intersect and interact in unpredictable ways, resulting in mutually reinforcing effects that could challenge our ability to respond, but also present new opportunities to forge collective action with allies and partners, including non-state actors.”
Regarding China, the US intelligence community stated that the Chinese Communist Party will continue its efforts to make China the “preeminent power in East Asia and a major power on the international stage.”
In his third term, Chinese President Xi Jinping will seek to “undermine US influence” by “driving wedges between Washington and its allies,” according to the report’s sources.
The intelligence community cautioned that the PRC is using “coordinated, whole-of-government tools” in its efforts to assert sovereignty over Taiwan. According to reports, China may expand on its actions beginning in 2022 to include more crossings of the Taiwan Strait centerline or missile flights over Taiwan.
Officials also warned that if China were to gain control over Taiwan, it would have “vast repercussions, including disruptions to global supply chains for semiconductor chips, since Taiwan dominates the production of cutting-edge chips.”
Officials also warned that Beijing is strengthening its domestic defence production capabilities for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and advanced conventional weapons. In addition, the intelligence community warned that China is constructing tens of thousands of new ICBM silos.
The report states, “Beijing is concerned that bilateral tension, US nuclear modernization, and PLA advancements in conventional capabilities have increased the likelihood of a US first strike.” Beijing’s increased faith in its nuclear deterrent is likely to strengthen its resolve and exacerbate conventional conflicts.
In terms of cyber and technology, the US intelligence community identifies China as the “broadest, most active, and most persistent cyber espionage threat to US Government and private-sector networks.”
Officials warn that China “is capable of launching cyberattacks that could disrupt critical infrastructure services in the United States, including against oil and gas pipelines and rail systems.”
According to the report, “China leads the world in its use of surveillance and censorship to monitor its population and suppress dissent.”
“Beijing conducts cyber intrusions that target U.S. and non-U.S. citizens beyond its borders, including journalists, dissidents, and individuals it views as threats, in an effort to counter viewpoints it deems critical of CCP narratives, policies, and actions.”
Officials also cautioned that China is rapidly expanding and enhancing its capabilities in artificial intelligence and big data analytics, which could be used beyond its borders.
Moving on to Russia, the US intelligence community cautioned that Moscow will continue to pose “a formidable and less predictable challenge to the United States in key areas over the next decade, but will face a variety of constraints.”
The intelligence community concluded, “Russia probably does not want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces, but such a conflict is possible.” “So far, Russian leaders have refrained from actions that would extend the Ukraine conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, but the risk of escalation remains significant.”
Officials warn that the relationship between China and Russia poses “potential threats in areas such as security collaboration, particularly arms sales and joint exercises, and diplomacy, where each country has used its veto power on the United Nations Security Council against US interests.”
And while China is one of the greatest threats to US national security, officials say Russia also poses “one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the United States” due to its intelligence services and influence tools that seek to sow discord in the US and influence US voters and decision-making.
Iran is committed to developing “surrogate networks inside the United States, a goal it has pursued for more than a decade,” according to officials. Iran will continue to threaten U.S. citizens directly and through proxy attacks, particularly in the Middle East.
Iran is not currently engaged in the key nuclear weapons development activities required to produce a testable nuclear device, according to officials, but Tehran has “accelerated the expansion of its nuclear programme.”
The report states that if Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials will likely consider enriching uranium to 90 percent.
Due to its capabilities and willingness to conduct “aggressive cyber operations,” Iran also poses a “major threat” to US networks and data.
The US intelligence community has determined that North Korea continues to enhance its nuclear capabilities with the United States and its allies in mind.
Officials warned that North Korea’s military “will pose a serious threat to the United States and its allies by continuing to invest in niche capabilities” designed to give Kim Jong Un “a range of options to deter outside intervention, offset persistent deficiencies in the country’s conventional forces, and advance his political objectives through coercion.”
According to the report, Kim Jong Un remains “strongly committed” to expanding North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and maintaining nuclear weapons as a “centrepiece of his national security structure.”
Officials also warned that North Korea’s chemical and biological weapons “remain a threat.” The intelligence community is “concerned” that North Korea “may use such weapons during a conflict or in an unconventional or clandestine attack,” according to the report.
Following the global COVID-19 pandemic, infectious disease was also evaluated. COVID, according to the intelligence community, “remains one of the most significant threats to global public health, having claimed over 6.5 million lives and trillions of dollars in lost economic output to date.”
“Countries around the world remain vulnerable to the emergence or introduction of a novel pathogen that could cause a devastating new pandemic,” the report states.
Regarding the origins of COVID-19, the report states that the intelligence community “continues to investigate” how COVID first infected humans.
According to the report, US citizens and U.S. interests “at home and abroad” will face a “persistent and increasingly diverse threat” from terrorism in the coming year.
“Individuals and cells adhering to ISIS, Al-Qaeda, or the transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (RMVE) movement pose a significant terrorist threat to US persons, facilities, and interests,” the report states. According to the report, Iran and Hizballah in Lebanon “remain committed to conducting terrorist attacks and may seek to do so on US soil.”
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ISIS seeks to “rebuild capabilities and replenish its ranks,” according to the intelligence community, and its ideology will “continue to inspire attacks,” including in the United States. Concerning Al Qaeda, the IC determined that the terrorist organization’s threat in Afghanistan “depends on the Taliban.”
