Mallika Dureja
North Korea said Sunday that it had tested an ICBM as a warning to Washington and Seoul. It said the successful “surprise” drill showed Pyongyang’s ability to launch a “fatal nuclear counterattack.”
Seoul said that in response, the US and South Korea held joint air drills with a strategic bomber and stealth fighter jets. The US and Japan also did a military drill together on Sunday, according to Tokyo’s defence ministry.
Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, ordered the “sudden launching drill” at 8:00 am (2300 GMT) on Saturday. That afternoon, a Hwasong-15 missile, a weapon that the North first tested in 2017, was fired from Pyongyang airport, according to the official ICBM.
Saturday at 8:22 a.m. GMT, the military of South Korea said it saw an ICBM launch at 17:22. Japan said that the missile flew for 66 minutes before it landed in its Exclusive Economic Zone. According to their analysis, the missile could have hit the United States mainland.
The North Korean government praised the test, which was the country’s first in seven weeks. State media KCNA said it showed “the actual war capacity of the ICBM units, which are ready for a swift and powerful counterattack.”
It said that the launch was “actual proof” that the country was “capable of a deadly nuclear counterattack on hostile forces.”
The South Korean military said on Sunday that it and the US had done air drills together, with at least one US B-1B long-range bomber taking part.
In a statement, the defence ministry said, “The exercise showed the timely and immediate deployment of US extended deterrence assets to the Korean peninsula.” This showed the “overwhelming force” of the allies.
Sunday, US and Japanese forces also did a joint exercise “in an increasingly dangerous security environment,” according to Japan’s defence ministry, which did not say what kind of exercise was done.
The North Korean rocket launch broke the rules, and it happened just days before Seoul and Washington were to start tabletop exercises to improve how they would respond to a North Korean nuclear attack.
Pyongyang warned last week that its response to upcoming drills would be “unprecedentedly” strong. It sees the drills as preparations for war and blames them for the worsening security on the Korean peninsula.
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The test on Saturday is important because “the event was ordered the day of, so this isn’t so much a traditional ‘test,’ but more of an exercise,” analyst Ankit Panda from the US told AFP.
“We should expect more of these kinds of exercises,” he said.
Soo Kim, a former CIA Korea analyst who now works for the management consulting firm LMI, said that the exercise seemed to be “Kim’s way of telling the US and ROK that his country is continuing to hone its ballistic missile capabilities for eventual use in a real-time scenario.”
“The weapons aren’t just for show,” she said to AFP. “This sense of imminence is probably meant to scare the allies, especially since they are trying to make the Korean Peninsula a less dangerous place.”
Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha University, said that it was the first time North Korea had explained the order-to-launch process in such detail.
“It’s important that Kim Jong Un’s order is clear,” Park said. He said it showed that “these weapons are all set up for real combat and ready to go at any time.”
Soo Kim said that the nine hours between Kim Jong Un’s order and the launch was “a long time,” which suggests that Pyongyang may face “greater challenges” in a “realistic launch scenario.”
Relations between the two Koreas are already at one of their lowest points in years after North Korea said it was a “irreversible” nuclear state and its leader, Kim, called for a “exponential” increase in weapon production, including tactical nuclear weapons.
In response, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol has tried to work more closely with the US. He has promised to expand joint military exercises and improve the US’s “extended deterrence” plan, which includes nuclear weapons.
Kim’s sister and spokeswoman, Kim Yo Jong, said on Sunday, according to a ICBM report, that these moves by Seoul and Washington “further endanger the situation every moment, destroying the stability of the region.”
“I want to warn you that we will keep an eye on every move the enemy makes and respond in kind with a very powerful and overwhelming force,” she said.
All of this points to “the start of high-intensity provocation from North Korea,” Professor Park of Ewha University told AFP.
“What’s different from 2022 is that they used their military plan for the next five years as an excuse last year,” he said.
“They are now making it clear that they will fight against the US and South Korea.”
Park said that Pyongyang’s increased aggression could also mean that things at home had gotten worse. After years of isolation because of a pandemic, South Korean officials recently warned that the North could run out of food.
“North Korea always takes a hard line and makes things worse on the outside as part of its “siege mentality” strategy to deal with its own problems. It is typical of North Korea to bring the people together by pointing out the threat from South Korea and the US ICBM “he said.
