Ajit Karn
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Nagaland Assembly Election 2023: In the last 8 years since Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister, the BJP has been continuously increasing its mass base in the 7 states of the Northeast known as Seven-Sisters. The result of this is that at present it has a stake in the government of 6 states here. Of these, the BJP government is running on its own in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Manipur. Whereas in Meghalaya and Nagaland, the coalition is involved in the government.
Ever since the formation of the BJP government at the Center in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been laying emphasis on strengthening the party’s ground in the northeastern states. Prime Minister Modi repeatedly says that he is trying to make the North Eastern states a ‘corridor of development, not a border of disputes’. Through this, he has been assuring the people of these states that the Northeast has been neglected in the past, but it will not happen now. Due to this intention and priority of Prime Minister Modi, it has become easy for BJP to gain a foothold in these states.
Neiphiu Rio has a chance to become CM for the 5th time.
An incident took place in Nagaland this year, due to which the power of the current Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio increased further. In April 2022, 21 MLAs of the main opposition party NPF joined Neiphiu Rio’s Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). Leader of the Opposition TR Zeliang was also involved in this. With this, the number of NDPP MLAs increased to 41 and the main opposition party NPF was left with only one MLA. NPF has already said that it will contest alone this time. However, it is now finding it very difficult for him to re-establish himself in the politics here. Neiphiu Rio will continue to get the support of BJP. With this, Neiphiu Rio has a chance to become the Chief Minister for the 5th time. The aim of the NDPP-BJP alliance is to remain in power. On the other hand, Congress will try to get back its lost ground.
In view of the forthcoming General Election to Nagaland Legislative Assembly, 2023 a four-day Certification Programme for Returning Officers (ROs) & Assistant Returning Officers (AROs) of Nagaland began at the @ATI_NGL on 13th December 2022. @dipr_nagaland pic.twitter.com/giMxciF1Vp
— MyGov Nagaland (@MyGovNagaland) December 13, 2022
BJP in the role of younger brother in Nagaland
Next year, once again, BJP will have to face the challenges of the opposition parties to retain power in the 3 states of the Northeast. In Nagaland, BJP has gradually ensured its share in power. By winning 12 seats in the last election, BJP reached such a position that without it no party could form the government. This time also BJP will contest the elections in alliance with Neiphiu Rio’s NDPP. Last year such news was coming that BJP wants to contest elections on its own, but at present BJP is not finding it right to remain in power. That’s why she does not want to leave the side of NDPP. In July this year itself, both the parties had issued a joint statement that BJP would contest on 20 seats and NDPP on 40 seats.
The road to 2023 is difficult for the Congress
There was a time when Congress used to speak in the politics of Nagaland. However, this time there is no chance for the Congress in the elections here. Congress does not have a single MLA. In the last five years, many of its leaders have joined the ruling party. The Congress does not have any leader left with a large mass base at the grassroots level. Despite this, State Congress President K Theri believes that the people of Nagaland are fed up with Neiphiu Rio and people will trust Congress only to solve the Naga problem. The Congress has formed a PAC a few days ago under the leadership of Pradesh Congress Committee President K. Theri. In this, the old veteran leader and 5-time Chief Minister of Nagaland, SC Jamir has also been included.
TMC is also looking for opportunity in Nagaland
Mamta Banerjee’s party TMC is also eyeing to increase its penetration in Nagaland. This time she will also contest the election. Mamta Banerjee believes that her party can strengthen its roots in Nagaland as an alternative to NPF and Congress. TMC is also expanding its ambit among the Naga groups demanding a separate state.
Big parties can be harmed by RPP
This time a new party Rising People’s Party (RPP) is entering the electoral fray of Nagaland. This party came into existence in 2021. The RPP was born in Nagaland with the aim of opposing the extortion of people by extremist and extremist groups. These include extremist groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN). RPP founder and president Joel Naga has demanded that elections should not be held until the Naga problem is resolved. They want that President’s rule should be imposed in the state for the time being.
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The issue related to the demand for Greater Nagaland or Nagalim
The Naga community and the Naga organizations there have been demanding for a long time the creation of a Greater Nagaland or Nagalim state in the Naga-dominated areas. The concept of Greater Nagaland also includes some areas of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur. The Naga groups want a separate constitution and a separate flag for this separate state. In 1980, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) started an armed movement demanding separation. Later due to differences, it got divided into two factions NSCN (IM) and NSCN (Khaplang). The NSCN (IM) faction also signed a ceasefire agreement with the central government in 1997. The Khaplang faction also agreed to this in 2000, but later retracted. On August 3, 2015, in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an agreement was signed between the NSCN-IM and the Central Government for a permanent solution to the Naga issue. This agreement was possible after 80 rounds of talks that lasted for 18 years. This was a framework agreement under which a way to find a permanent solution to the Naga issue was to be found in the future. Although the 1997 agreement is now 25 years old and the 2015 agreement is more than 7 years old. Still a permanent solution has not been found. This will be a big issue in this election. The NSCN-IM is still not ready to back down from the demand for a separate flag and constitution. This demand is the biggest obstacle in the peace process.
The issue of Frontier Nagaland will also remain a shadow
The demand for a separate state by the name of Frontier Nagaland will also be a big issue in this election. The Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization (ENPO), representing 7 Naga groups in the eastern part, has already said that it will boycott the elections if the Center does not create Frontier Nagaland. ENPO is demanding a plebiscite in the districts of eastern Nagaland for this. The Eastern Nagaland People’s Organization has a large mass base in six of the total 16 districts, Kiphire, Longleng, Mon, Noklak, Shamtor and Tuensang. The Chang, Khiamniungan, Konyak, Phom, Sangtam, Tikhir and Yimkhiung groups of people live in these districts. 20 out of 60 seats in the state come in these six districts. Of these, 15 seats are currently with the NDPP. At the same time BJP has 4 and one seat is with independents. Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio has already said that it is not wrong to demand a separate state on behalf of the people of the eastern part of the state. Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio is urging all Naga parties and groups to come together and hold talks on this issue to avoid the damage caused by the demand for a separate state.
NDPP-BJP won the battle in 2018
In 2018, the main contest in Nagaland was between the Naga People’s Front (NPF) and the NDPP-BJP alliance. Nephew of NDPP was elected unopposed from Rio Northern-II Angami seat in this assembly election. No one had nominated against him. Because of this, in 2018, votes were cast on 59 out of 60 seats in Nagaland.
NDPP got benefit from BJP
In the 2018 elections, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) won 18 seats and its ally BJP won 12 seats. NDPP got 25.3% and BJP got 15.31% votes. The Naga People’s Front (NPF) became the single largest party by winning 26 seats. Its share in the vote share was 38.78%, but the NDPP-BJP alliance easily managed to secure a majority. Last time the Congress got wiped out from here. He did not get a single seat. Despite contesting on 18 seats, it got only two per cent votes. National People’s Party (NPEP) got two seats and JDU got one seat. One seat went to the independent’s account.
BJP vote share increased in 2018
There was another reason due to which the base of BJP increased in the last election. Before this election, in January 2018, Congress leader and former Chief Minister KL Chishi had joined BJP along with 12 other leaders. KL Chishi was considered a strong leader there. Because of this, BJP also benefited in the 2018 elections. However, later he again joined the Congress in March 2019. Before this election, BJP had ended the alliance with the ruling party Naga People’s Front. BJP contested the elections in alliance with the newly formed party NDPP.
Neiphiu Rio’s coin runs in Nagaland
The current Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio has been the biggest face of Nagaland politics for the last 20 years. In 2018, he became the Chief Minister of Nagaland for the fourth time. Before forming the NDPP, Neiphiu Rio was the tallest leader of the NPF. Prior to joining the NPF in 2002, Neiphiu Rio was considered a senior leader of the Congress. The Nagaland People’s Council (NPC) was renamed NPF in October 2002. It was the charisma of Neiphiu Rio that the Congress went out of power in Nagaland in the 2003 assembly elections. Earlier, the Congress was in power here for ten consecutive years. In 2003, Neiphiu Rio became the Chief Minister of Nagaland for the first time. 2017
