Ajit Karn
London: A new update from the World Meteorological Organization indicates that a warming El Nino event may develop in the future months (WMO).
El Nino may develop after three consecutive years of an unusually persistent and protracted La Nina, which influenced global temperature and precipitation patterns, according to a WMO statement.
The return of El Nino is expected to be preceded by a period of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions with a 90% chance between March and May, according to the statement.
It was stated that the likelihood of ENSO neutral conditions persisting beyond May decreases marginally but remains high, with a likelihood of 80% in April-June and 60% in May-July based on model projections and the assessment of experts involved in the production of the Update.
The chances of El Nino developing are minimal in the first half of the year, at 15% from April to June, but progressively increase to 35% from May to July, according to the statement.
Long-range forecasts for June-August indicate a much greater probability of El Nino development, 55%, but are subject to the high uncertainty associated with spring predictions, the so-called spring predictability barrier.
“The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century is nearing its conclusion. La Nina’s moderating effect temporarily halted the rise in global temperatures, despite the fact that the last eight years were the warmest on record “said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
Mr. Taalas stated, “If we now enter an El Nino phase, this is likely to cause another rise in global temperatures.”
El Nino and climate change have combined to make 2016 the warmest year in recorded history.
There is a 93 percent chance that at least one year between now and 2026 will be the warmest on record. In addition, there is a 50/50 chance that the global temperature will temporarily reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to a study from the UK’s Met Office, the WMO’s primary centre for annual to decadal climate forecasts.
The current La Nina began in September 2020, with a brief interruption during the boreal summer of 2021.
La Nina is the large-scale lowering of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, accompanied by variations in tropical atmospheric circulation.
It typically has the opposite effects on weather and climate in affected regions as El Nino.
La Nina has been linked to persistent drought in the Greater Horn of Africa and significant portions of South America, as well as above-average precipitation in South East Asia and Australasia.
El Nino and La Nina are naturally occurring phenomena. However, this is occurring against the backdrop of human-caused climate change, which is increasing global temperatures, altering seasonal rainfall patterns, and intensifying our weather.
El Nino and La Nina are significant drivers of the Earth’s climate system, but they are not the only ones.
In addition to the long-established ENSO Update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) now issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU), which incorporate the influences of other major climate drivers such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
For the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, a return to near-normal ENSO conditions is anticipated, and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are forecast for most other oceanic regions.
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According to the GSCU, this contributes to extensive forecasts of above-normal temperatures over land areas.
Even though La Nina is coming to an end, latent impacts are likely to persist for some time, and some of the canonical rainfall effects of La Nina may endure.
Multi-year La Nina is distinguished from single-peak La Nina by its lengthy duration and continuous circulation anomaly, both of which contribute to its enduring effects.
