Ajit Karn
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Upcoming Elections 2023: The assembly elections of 9 states to be held this year are being called ‘semi-finals of power’. Actually, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are to be held just a few months after the end of these assembly elections. It cannot be denied that the results of these assembly elections will have an impact on the Lok Sabha elections 2024 as well. This is the reason why all the political parties have already started preparations for the assembly elections of 9 states.
Assembly elections are to be held in Tripura, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Karnataka, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana this year. The political board has started being laid in all the states and political equations are being put to the test. Everything from opposition unity to BJP’s election machinery is going to be tested in the assembly elections of these 9 states. Let us know which of the political parties are in so much water?
Regional parties can increase BJP’s trouble in Tripura
In 2023, the first elections are to be held in the northeastern states. One of these is the challenge before the BJP in Tripura to make a comeback as the ruling party. In the year 2018, BJP had won 35 seats in a historic performance. Last year BJP also had to change the Chief Minister. This time, apart from the Congress-Left alliance, the Trinamool Congress and a separate Fourth Front ‘Tipra Motha’ have increased the difficulties in front of the BJP. Tipra Motha, the newly formed tribal party of Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarman, scion of the Tripura royal family, has kept distance from both BJP and Congress for the time being. This can have an impact on 20 reserved seats in the state.
NPP will become a challenge for BJP-Congress in Meghalaya
The Congress could not get a majority in the 2018 assembly elections, but emerged as the single largest party. The BJP, which won only two assembly seats, formed the government in alliance with the National People’s Party (NPP). In this assembly elections, the NPP has announced to break away from the NDA and contest the elections alone. BJP does not have any special mass base in this state. At the same time, TMC has become the main opposition party in Meghalaya after Congress MLAs joined Trinamool Congress. In simple words, it will be a distant dream for the Congress to come to power in the state. At the same time, it will be a priority for BJP to save its political land.
Difficult for Congress to overcome NDPP-BJP alliance in Nagaland
Assembly elections are to be held in Nagaland in the first quarter of this year. A coalition government with the BJP is running in Nagaland under the leadership of Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio. NDPP President Neiphiu Rio has been the Chief Minister of Nagaland for 9 times. Before the assembly elections this time in Nagaland, the BJP has tied up with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party on 20 seats. In the year 2018, BJP had won 12 out of 20 seats. Simply put, it is difficult for the Congress to overcome this alliance.
There will be close fight between BJP and Congress in Karnataka
In Karnataka last year, many issues including hijab were in the limelight. The BJP is preparing to contest the assembly elections this time on the face of Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai. At the same time, the Congress has also geared up. However, the political tussle between DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah can create problems for the Congress. On the other hand, the regional party JDS, while talking about Kannada pride, is aspiring to see HD Kumaraswamy as the CM again in the role of kingmaker. On the other hand, Janardhan Reddy, one of the Reddy brothers who were close to the BJP, has brought strength to the BJP by forming a separate party. The alliance between Congress and JDS has not been decided yet, so it will be interesting to see the results of the Karnataka assembly elections.
It is not easy to compete with KCR in Telangana, BJP trying to establish roots
Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) is winning the election for two consecutive terms. KCR’s party, which has become BRS from TRS, has deep penetration in Telangana. At the same time, BJP has inducted many TRS leaders into the party, rapidly establishing its roots in the state. This strategy is similar to that adopted by the BJP before the assembly elections in West Bengal. At the same time, the challenge to the BRS for the Congress in Telangana seems impossible.
BJP-Congress embroiled in factionalism before elections in Rajasthan
Rajasthan assembly elections are to be held at the end of the year and before that factionalism in the ruling party Congress has openly come on the streets. Sachin Pilot has indirectly opened a front against CM Ashok Gehlot. It is necessary for the Congress to find a solution to the enmity between Gehlot and Pilot. At the same time, the news of tussle in the relations of former CM Vasundhara Raje with the BJP high command has also been in the headlines. Vasundhara Raje has not lagged behind in putting pressure on the BJP to get herself the CM project. Overall, the situation is not easy for both Congress and BJP, but the tussle between Pilot and Gehlot makes the path of Congress more difficult.
Challenge for BJP to regain its political ground in Chhattisgarh
In the year 2018, under the leadership of Chhattisgarh’s three-time CM Raman Singh, the BJP, which contested the assembly elections, was cleared. The Congress cashed in on the anti-incumbency wave against the BJP by winning 68 out of 90 seats. In Chhattisgarh, everyone’s eyes are on how the Congress high command will end the political feud between CM Bhupesh Baghel and TS Singhdev. At the same time, this time BJP is going to contest elections on the face of PM Narendra Modi. Getting back its political ground is going to be the biggest challenge for the BJP in the state.
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Direct fight between Congress and BJP in Madhya Pradesh
In the year 2018, the Congress ousted the BJP from power by winning 114 out of 230 assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh. Congress had made Kamal Nath the CM by taking the support of independent MLAs. However, after two years, the Congress government fell due to the rebellion of 22 MLAs close to Jyotiraditya Scindia and Shivraj Singh Chouhan regained power. The anti-incumbency wave against BJP in MP was visible in the last election itself. At the same time, the political tussle between Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath can increase difficulties for the Congress.
MNF strong in Mizoram, BJP may vote for Congress
In Mizoram, there is a government of Mizo National Front (MNF) led by Zoramthanga. In the 2018 assembly elections, NDA’s ally MNF won 26 out of 40 seats. In that election, Congress was reduced to 5 seats. The MNF has been very strong in alliance with the BJP, but in October last year, BJP chief Vanlalmuaka had announced to contest 40 seats alone. However, there is still a lot of time for the elections, so there is a possibility that MNF and BJP may come together again. At the same time, it will be a challenge for the Congress to save its land here.
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