Mallika Dureja
China, a “near peer level competitor” of the United States, has the ability to alter the rules-based order in every sector and across multiple regions, according to a report released by the US intelligence community on Wednesday. The report also concluded that relations between India and China will remain “strained” over the next year, and that the persistent low-level friction at their shared border has the potential to escalate rapidly.
In its annual threat assessment report, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) — the apex of the United States’ extensive intelligence apparatus — identified two significant strategic threats to US interests. The first is the strategic competition between the United States and its allies and Russia and China. The second relates to shared global challenges, such as climate, health, and human security.
The report warns, “These two strategic challenges will intersect and interact in unpredictable ways, resulting in mutually reinforcing effects that may challenge our ability to respond.”
The report was drafted at the beginning of February and disclosed on Wednesday, as intelligence community leaders briefed the US Congress on threats to national security.
In a section on potential interstate conflicts, the report mentions India-China relations, indicating that despite bilateral border talks and “resolved border points,” relations will remain “tense” in the wake of the deadly clash in 2020. This is a reference to the skirmish between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, along the Sino-Indian border, in June 2020. Twenty Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese forces perished along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) for the first time in 45 years.
“The increased military postures of both India and China along the disputed border increase the likelihood of armed conflict between two nuclear powers, which could pose direct threats to U.S. persons and interests and necessitate U.S. intervention. Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) can quickly escalate.
