Ajit Karn
Melbourne: The World Health Organization designated COVID as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Three years later, nothing has changed.
COVID is still very much with us, despite our reluctance and the fact that it is no longer on the front page.
But how terrible has it been? And, more importantly, what lessons have we learned that could assist us in accelerating a genuine and sustained exit?
COVID has struck us severely.
The initial global response to what is now known as SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, was sluggish. This enabled the virus to gain a footing, which contributed to an unexpectedly rapid evolution of the virus.
Three years into the pandemic, with almost all mitigation measures eliminated in the majority of countries, it is evident that the virus has had a devastating impact on the world. Approximately 681 million infections and over 6.8 million fatalities have been reported to date.
Perhaps the greatest illustration of this is its effect on life expectancy. In 2020 and 2021, the global economy experienced precipitous declines, reversing 70 years of largely uninterrupted growth.
The excess mortality responsible for this decline in life expectancy has persisted. This includes Australia, where an estimated 20,000 more lives were lost than the historical average in 2022.
Not only AIDS fatalities
The indirect effects on the health systems of both wealthy and impoverished nations remain substantial. Stillbirths, maternal mortality, and postpartum depression have increased due to disruptions in health services.
The rate of routine childhood immunisations has declined. Essential programmes for malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV have been disrupted.
This week’s publication highlights the devastating effects of the pandemic on mental health worldwide.
Then there is long COVID
Meanwhile, additional evidence of protracted COVID has emerged worldwide. It was estimated that at least 65 million people would be affected by this debilitating syndrome by the end of 2022.
The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimates that 5-10% of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals will develop long-term COVID, with symptoms lasting longer than three months. Based on the more than 11 million cases reported to date, this ranges from 550,000 to 1,100,000 Australians.
COVID highlighted inequalities
The pandemic has also had a significant direct and indirect economic impact.
For its response, the United States alone spent $4 trillion. In 2025, economists estimate that the pandemic will reduce GDP by an average of 0.75 percent in countries with high infection rates and high productivity.
According to studies conducted in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia, COVID has had a disproportionate impact on disadvantaged communities and ethnic minorities, including higher mortality rates.
The causes range from high exposure in low-paying occupations to insufficient health care access. In addition, impoverished nations have fared poorly in all aspects of COVID, including unequal access to vaccines.
No resolution is in sight.
We cannot presume a natural conclusion to the pandemic, in which the virus reaches endemicity and becomes a harmless background presence.
In fact, there are few indications that something similar is imminent.
Since the start of January, more than 235,000 COVID cases have been reported in Australia, which is nearly as many as in 2020 and 2021 combined. Since the beginning of January, 2,351 COVID-related fatalities have occurred, more than twice as many as in all of 2020 and roughly the same as in all of 2021.
What should happen next?
Practically, the future response can be reduced to three actions that overlap.
1. Politicians must be forthright
Our political leaders must inform the public with candour that the pandemic is not over. They must emphasise that we still face an exceptional problem with acute disease, in addition to disturbing concerns regarding long-term COVID. It is essential for politicians to acknowledge victims and the deceased. They must do so while conveying the positive news that neither lockdowns nor mandates are required to combat COVID. If our legislators did this, the public would be more likely to receive booster vaccinations, get tested and treated, and implement preventative measures such as improving indoor ventilation and donning high-quality masks.
Additionally, the health system must be significantly strengthened to combat long-term COVID.
2. preventing infections remains crucial
The suppression of the virus remains crucial. We can and should continue to reduce the burden of newly acquired COVID and, by extension, long-term COVID. We are equipped to accomplish this.
We must acknowledge that COVID is primarily transmitted through the air. As discussed in a recently published article in the journal Nature, there are steps we can take immediately to ensure that the oxygen we breathe is free of SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses.
3. Utilize innovative knowledge and technology
We should prioritise science and be quick to implement new information and products.
A promising new approach to treat long-term COVID with the diabetes drug metformin was recently tested.
Intriguing research has also implicated persistent infection as a potential underlying cause of organ injury and disease following COVID and in long-term COVID. This suggests that antiviral medications like Paxlovid may play a significant role in reducing the impact of chronic disease.
Numerous variants of novel COVID vaccines, such as those administered via nasal syringes, are undergoing testing and may be game-changers.
The pathogen will not cure itself.
As we enter the fourth year of the pandemic, we cannot allow the virus to self-correct.
The most important lesson of the past three years is that there is little likelihood of success, at least without an intolerably high price tag.
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Instead, we can choose to halt the pandemic. We are aware of what to do. But we simply do not do it. The Discussion
Michael Toole, Associate Principal Research Fellow, and Brendan Crabb, Director and Chief Executive Officer, Burnet Institute
This article is republished under a Creative Commons licence from The Conversation. Consult the source article.
